In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue to invest in the U.S. stock market?

Soapbox

Is another market crash coming?

From jobs to housing to the "September effect," several economic and market indicators are warning investors to be cautious.

Here are 6 reasons to watch out:

1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not?

2. The Fed is getting nervous. The central bank recently warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. The move should drive down long-term interest rates. That's great news for mortgage borrowers, but it's hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is already north of 10,000.

 
 
 

3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.

4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, the drop is affecting wages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour last quarter than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if your among the people who owe way too much money.

5. Many people still owe way too much money. And not just households -- corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam owe, too. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt -- even excluding the financial sector -- is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared with $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it has fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it at twice the level of a decade ago.

6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the population age 20 or over has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s, when more women stayed at home by choice. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, although allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working can find only part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish?

Comments

Fri, 2016/07/01 - 12:02pm Re: In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue ... #144
sanson's picture
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Those six reasons seem to be correct according to the present economic condition of the market. As rush essay service articles provides the best tips on this. Hera investor must use some brain where to keep these investment not all shares are in loss so he must be able to estimate which one will be good for him to invest and think of long term investment is another best option.

Thu, 2017/06/22 - 11:58am Re: In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue ... #2461
angelamaria's picture
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Thu, 2018/08/23 - 5:11am Re: In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue ... #7119
phamyen's picture
Joined 2018-08-23
Votes: 1
Polls:
Comments: 3

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Thu, 2018/08/23 - 6:54am Re: In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue ... #7120
lindarose11's picture
Joined 2018-06-19
Votes: 0
Polls:
Comments: 5

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Sat, 2018/09/22 - 7:23am Re: In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue ... #7297
Natahana's picture
Joined 2018-09-22
Votes: 0
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Comments: 11

Please treat each other well. Everybody has difficulties that we have to overcome, do not know later but how to live each day happily.

Tue, 2018/12/18 - 8:35am Re: In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue ... #7678
phamyen's picture
Joined 2018-08-23
Votes: 1
Polls:
Comments: 3

The article is really useful and meaningful. thank you for sharing

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Tue, 2019/01/29 - 6:42am Re: In light of the economic meltdown, will people continue ... #9585
lindarose11's picture
Joined 2018-06-19
Votes: 0
Polls:
Comments: 5

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